Has anyone noticed Covid spikes after gatherings

[AirSniper]

If you track back further and look at the other troughs before the rise in case, you'll see the biggest leap was just after BLM kicked off.

 

Actual real world data from the John Hopkins University who are collecting all world data and this guy used that data to plot an alternative graph that demonstrates why we are not going to be over COVID and that we almost had it licked back at the time BLM kicked off.

Each subsequent gathering to protest and demonstrate has led to sudden rises in cases. There is no coincidence as it repeats with each bunch of idiots out shouting about stuff when we need to have people just follow the rules and get over themselves.  If its not Extinction Rebellion or its offshoot, Insulate Britain, its BLM or protests about lockdowns and vaccinations.

The way things are going is going to be lockdown and all because people refuse to follow the guidelines that are there to prevent spread.

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=United+Kingdom

As I say often,.... You can lead a horse to slaughter but you can't make it shoot itself.

Edited December 24, 2021 by Jedi_Master
More descriptive title... less click bait

[hitmanNo2]

What does it change though?  No more big events with lots of people?  There will always be those.  Covid is not something we get over.  We will live with it forever.  Just hopefully in a similar manner to the common cold as it gets further diluted from mutations.

[Adolf Hamster]

whilst i don't strictly disagree with the premise that mass gathering events (such as, but not limited to protests) allow enhanced spread of disease compared to not having such events, there needs to be care taken not to take correlation as equal to causation.

 

in this case, the correlation is that protest events are causing the rise in cases, when it's equally plausible that the protest events are symptomatic of a wider feeling of safety, where people are gathering for all sorts of reasons (with protesting being only one of those reasons) and it is the wider relaxation of society that is primarily responsible for the rise in cases.

 

for example the first rise in cases on your chart, which protest event is that linked to?

[AirSniper]

In real world terms, there are no coincidences, there is only data that corroborates a link with mass social gatherings and then that is taken back to their home and fiends then the pub then the night club or venue they go to, before long, there is an explosion in numbers.

 

As its clear from going in to the data, that the 4th July 2020 BLM protests were met with a rise, this rise and a fairly consistent rise.

There is a lag in the time so there is a 2 to 3 day window.

You also see spikes after people went to the beaches, so its clear for as long as this type of graph travels in the direction it is going, covid is not over. The numbers have to plummet vertically down off the page to be considered "Over" the infection peak. When you see the graphing on the TV, thats the standard type of graph that is used, not that useful in determining if the cases have passed the peak. IMHO this graph shows the true state of the country and not the other graphs.

My money is on a lockdown after christmas.

 

NYE is cancelled...

 

so it is looking likely that its's a lockdown Christmas.

29 minutes ago, Adolf Hamster said:

whilst i don't strictly disagree with the premise that mass gathering events (such as, but not limited to protests) allow enhanced spread of disease compared to not having such events, there needs to be care taken not to take correlation as equal to causation.

 

in this case, the correlation is that protest events are causing the rise in cases, when it's equally plausible that the protest events are symptomatic of a wider feeling of safety, where people are gathering for all sorts of reasons (with protesting being only one of those reasons) and it is the wider relaxation of society that is primarily responsible for the rise in cases.

 

for example the first rise in cases on your chart, which protest event is that linked to?

Hover over the lowest point in that trough, it gives you a date.

Go to google and search for "Demonstrations around xx/xx/xxxx" or "Protests around xx/xx/xxxx" there the xx's are the date and see what results pop up, that trough you refer to, I searched and it pulled up BLM protests, the one in Bristol.

Each date around the time of the lowest point in each trough, corresponds to a protest of some sort. These people travel hundreds of miles to take part, so its no stretch to see that this infection is passed through close proximity, and those who have had contact are at risk and truck it back to their family or in to their workplace... 

I do keep saying that this is not over for a very long time and until there is compliance like in the past to thwart and combat previous pandemics, this illness will continue to mutate and could become the new super plague with no treatment to cure it. 

How are things going to return to normal? And don't start that rabbit hole of "Whats normal anyway" argument as thats not the meaning, I mean a state where we don't need masks, can go about the things we like doing with no restrictions... normal.

[Shamal]

I'm not restricted in any way. I work,  I go out where and when I like. I don't wear a mask. What restrictions?

[EDcase]

4 hours ago, AirSniper said:

The way things are going is going to be lockdown and all because people refuse to follow the guidelines that are there to prevent spread.

Something we can agree on ?

[Shamal]

Are they the same guidelines that our government adhere to. ?

[AirSniper]

7 minutes ago, Shamal said:

Are they the same guidelines that our government adhere to. ?

So if they jumped off a cliff, I take it you would also???

[Shamal]

8 minutes ago, AirSniper said:

So if they jumped off a cliff, I take it you would also???

No worries there mate. They wouldn't lol

19 minutes ago, AirSniper said:

So if they jumped off a cliff, I take it you would also???

If they told you to jump off a cliff I take it you would. 

[Rogerborg]

51 minutes ago, EDcase said:

Something we can agree on ?

 

Not all of us, with respect.  This opinion is also available.

 

 

The people issuing the laws, diktats, rules and guidelines, clearly, demonstrably, don't believe that they're necessary.  Their actions give the lie to their words, and I mean all of them, all politicians of all parties, all meedja talking heads of all channels, all podiumed scienticians: everybody that we see lecturing us on our Telescreens every day puts on a performance, whips the mask off the moment they think the cameras have stopped rolling, then gets their mistress round to nosh them off at a cheesy wine party.  We are to do as they say, not as they do.

 

Long term, we should be clear that SARS-COV-2 being endemic means we're all going to get the coofs, multiple times, no matter how much we mask, wash, clap and jab.  Blaming each other for something that is inevitable won't really achieve much except for keeping us perpetually angry, suspicious and weaponised against (REQUIRED_JABS - 1) refuseniks.

 

On jabs, vaccination now is likely as good as it's ever going to get in combination of coverage and efficacy.  Coronaviruses mutate faster than we can keep up, and vaccines are always going to be multiple variants behind.  Israel, Gibraltar, Malta, all past their third doses and onto their fourth, all with transmission still through the roof, and with waning efficacy against omicron.  The ONS are reporting, quietly, without a headline summary, that the more jabs you've had, the more likely any covid diagnosis will be for omicron than for a previous variant (table 1b).  Please note that I'm being careful with the wording there, I'm not saying anything that I'm not saying.

 

In terms of how bad it is, raw "cases" are numberwang, and driven by testing rather than rising positive rates.  If I were to tell you that there are 2 billion bacteria on your toilet seat, it's because I looked for them. There were 2 billion yesterday, and the only thing that's changed today is that you know, and might be worried about it.

 

Looking at the daily hospital numbers for England, the number of beds occupied by people who have tested positive for SARS-COV-2 is rising.  However, deaths are not rising, either with or from, and significantly, mechanical ventilation number have barely budged since October.  Yes, bad cases of delta are very very bad, and it's genuinely harrowing for the ICU staff dealing with it.  If we could eliminate SAR-COV-2 tomorrow, I'd be delighted.  The bad news is that we cant, but the good news is that the numbers that matter, deaths and suffering, aren't anywhere near as bad as the "cases" headlines.

 

If we accept the argument that we have to mask, jab, isolate, jab, distance, jab and jab in order primarily to Save Our NHS from winter pressure, then I cannot see any reason why this won't apply every winter.  Our NHS is three weeks from collapse, always has been, and always will be.

 

So I'd suggest that whatever happens this year isn't just for this Christmas, it's for every Christmas to come, forever.

 

I'll respect differing opinions, but I'll respect them a lot more if they're your own independent thoughts, and come with some up-to-date source citations.

[EDcase]

I'm sure we can all agree the government is comprised of toffs living in their privileged world with nothing but personal gains on their little minds.

 

BUT

 

They occasionally listen to the doctors and medical experts advising what to do.

It should be very clear after two years of this shit situation that its only going to go away if EVERYONE does their bit to protect themselves and each other.

 

The anti-vaxers and people moaning about loosing their rights are precisely the reason we're still in this situation.

 

Luckily the new Omicron variant seems to have less serious symptoms but the more people who are infected the more likely it is to mutate into a worse variant.

 

 

Edited December 22, 2021 by EDcase

[RostokMcSpoons]

 I would completely agree with everything you just said there @EDcase except the Omicron variant shows it's not just down to us all doing the right thing, it's down to all the leaders in all the countries trying to do the right thing too, and the rich countries helping the poorer ones with vaccines etc.

 

It's a world-wide responsibility.

 

So while I don't want that to be an excuse for people here ignoring the advice and the temporary rules, I fear that as long as there are pockets of the global community where vaccines haven't been widely distributed or used, there'll be new variants popping up that can cause more trouble.

 

it's going to be a long while before we can get back to a truly normal existence.  

 

 

[EDcase]

Very true Rostok.

Though it doesn't really depend on the leaders and governments but the people.

If everyone in each country treated this seriously and did the right thing it would help in the long run.

 

The authorities are responsible for organising the vaccines (and hopefully there will be more co-operation and help from the richer countries) but if people refuse to have them through ignorance and false information this could drag on for many more years.

 

 

 

Edited December 23, 2021 by EDcase

[Rogerborg]

1 hour ago, EDcase said:

It should be very clear after two years of this shit situation that its only going to go away if EVERYONE does their bit to protect themselves and each other.

 

Go away?  But... SARS-COV-2 is never going to go away.  It's endemic.  We're never going to have zero covid, ever, no matter what we do.  No amount of vaccination stops us catching or spreading it, it just mitigates it.

 

 

1 hour ago, EDcase said:

The anti-vaxers and people moaning about loosing their rights are precisely the reason we're still in this situation.

 

Israel, Gibraltar and Malta, as above.  Near complete compliance, triple doses and onto the fourth, masks, lockdowns, vaccine passports.

 

Cases are still through the roof.  Triple vaccinated and masked people are catching it from and spreading it to other triple vaccinated and masked people.

 

Who's to blame for that, and what more can they do?

 

 

1 hour ago, EDcase said:

Luckily the new Omicron variant seems to have less serious symptoms but the more people who are infected the more likely it is to mutate into a worse variant.

 

Virus trajectory tends to be towards more transmissibility, but milder severity.  It's certainly possible that a variant could come along that's both more transmissible than omicron and more harmful, but it's not likely.  It's more likely that pi, rho and sigma will get milder and milder until they're no more harmful than any of the other endemic coronaviruses which we all catch multiple times in our lives.

 

Even the threat of antibody dependent enhancement from vaccines isn't that big a spectre.

 

If any of this sounds like I'm downplaying the severity of covid, particularly pre-omicron variants, or that I'm anti-vax, nope.

 

We can and we should mitigate the ongoing harm, but please, let's be realistic about our expectations.  There is no vaccine that prevents transmission, so even if we somehow managed to dose everybody in the world all at the same time, it still wouldn't end the situation.

 

We've got years more of this to go, but it's going to get better from here.

[Tactical Pith Helmet]

8 hours ago, AirSniper said:

Go to google and search for "Demonstrations around xx/xx/xxxx" or "Protests around xx/xx/xxxx" there the xx's are the date and see what results pop up, that trough you refer to, I searched and it pulled up BLM protests, the one in Bristol.

Each date around the time of the lowest point in each trough, corresponds to a protest of some sort. These people travel hundreds of miles to take part, so its no stretch to see that this infection is passed through close proximity, and those who have had contact are at risk and truck it back to their family or in to their workplace... 

The 4th July 2021 was also the start of a five day test match attended by 17,500 people; most of whom travelled hundreds of miles to get there.  The initial Bristol protests were attended by around a 1,000 people, although the subsequent support protests were much larger.  

 

I Googled sports events on that date, but I could have chosen theatre re-openings or concerts or whatever.  

 

[EDcase]

@Rogerborg Yes, hopefully we're over the worst and as you said, it should follow the trend of past pandemics like the Spanish Flu.

I still think the situation will improve faster if everyone takes it seriously and tries to reduce the risks of contamination.

Follow the advice of the medical experts not the government or politicians

 

 

 

Edited December 23, 2021 by EDcase

[Cannonfodder]

3 hours ago, EDcase said:

@Rogerborg Yes, hopefully we're over the worst and as you said, it should follow the trend of past pandemics like the Spanish Flu.

I still think the situation will improve faster if everyone takes it seriously and tries to reduce the risks of contamination.

Follow the advice of the medical experts not the government or politicians

 

 

 

This. Your analogy with Spanish flu was a good one. The pandemic of 1918 was H1N1, the same as the 2009 swine flu pandemic which killed an estimated 284000 globally

 

It's the anti vaxxers and tin foil hat brigade causing this to go on longer. If you look in ICU wards it's the unvaccinated who are filling up the beds and mortuarys. Tbh I'm getting to the point where every time a plague rat is reportedly being treated for covid I feel like quoting Ivan Drago

Edited December 23, 2021 by Cannonfodder

[Rogerborg]

4 hours ago, Cannonfodder said:

It's the anti vaxxers and tin foil hat brigade causing this to go on longer.

 

I'm again going to have to ask: who is to blame for Israel's high case rate, given their rapid, early, and near total compliance with sweeping interventions up to and beyond three vaccinations?

 

This is going to go on for years, globally, regardless of what we do.

 

 

4 hours ago, Cannonfodder said:

If you look in ICU wards it's the unvaccinated who are filling up the beds and mortuarys. 

 

Is it?  July to September 2021, yes.

 

It had already fallen to 35% by October. And yet you'll still see 90% repeated as "the latest figures" into December.

 

There are plenty of headlines today about one ICU doctor repeating that 90% claim again, along with saying that it's patients in their 20s and 30s requiring care.  Just about every media source is running with the same story, using the same wording, which is a good indication that it's being "nudged" via the revolving door between Fleet and Downing streets.

 

Now, it may very well be true in in London.  However, we don't know, since once of the doctor's complaints is that daily figures for care-vs-vaccination-status aren't available.

 

And here's the thing you wouldn't guess from the headlines: the number of people requiring ventilation is falling, not rising.

 

See the NHS figures here, Daily Admissions and Beds.  The peak for mechanical ventilation was in early November, and it's actually trending down this week.

 

If that's due to Londoners finally getting vaccinated, good, about time too.

 

Or it could be due to better treatment options.  Again, that's good news.

 

Just please, let's look beyond the headlines, and keep things in perspective.

 

 

 

Do I think that anyone still stubborn enough to be unvaccinated at this point is engaging in self- and societal harm?  Yup.

 

Do I think that calling them "plague rats" and engaging in a Two Minute Hate is likely to be constructive or persuasive?

 

Nope.  I'd rather that we celebrate the wins rather than turning on each other, no matter how cathartic it feels.

[EDcase]

I personally know someone that had their operation cancelled twice because there were too many unvaccinated patients assholes in the hospital at the time.

 

As far as Israel vs the UK, it should be quite clear who is on the right path...

 

Edited December 23, 2021 by EDcase

[Dratsab]

11 hours ago, Rogerborg said:

On jabs, vaccination now is likely as good as it's ever going to get in combination of coverage and efficacy.  Coronaviruses mutate faster than we can keep up, and vaccines are always going to be multiple variants behind. 

 

Not strictly true. The US Military has reportedly developed a jab that works against all currently known variants and supposedly all future variants.

 

Time will tell of course, but humans are capable of incredible feats especially when there's a strong enough incentive at play.

[ImTriggerHappy]

1 hour ago, Dratsab said:

 

Not strictly true. The US Military has reportedly developed a jab that works against all currently known variants and supposedly all future variants.

 

Time will tell of course, but humans are capable of incredible feats especially when there's a strong enough incentive at play.

[hitmanNo2]

If there's anyone we can trust, it's the US military...

[ImTriggerHappy]

2 hours ago, Rogerborg said:

 

Do I think that anyone still stubborn enough to be unvaccinated at this point is engaging in self- and societal harm?  Yup.

 

Do I think that calling them "plague rats" and engaging in a Two Minute Hate is likely to be constructive or persuasive?

 

Nope.  I'd rather that we celebrate the wins rather than turning on each other, no matter how cathartic it feels.

 

I disagree as two minutes with a blunt instrument and a quick vaccine jab into the unconscious tin foil hat wearing moron seems like it would be quite cathartic to me.

[Rogerborg]

2 hours ago, EDcase said:

As far as Israel vs the UK, it should be quite clear who is on the right path

 

It would be clearer scaled by population, and by tests performed.

The reason that I mention Gibraltar and - excuse me, it was Cyprus I was thinking of, rather than Malta - is that they've done even more testing per capita than the UK and have - can you guess? - found more cases per capita.

 

Israel has done less, and found less. But wait, what's the positive test rate?  Or viewed the other way, how many tests has each nation done in order to find a case?

 

In Cyprus it's 64 (1.56% positive rate), Gibraltar is 55 (1.8%), Cyprus is 64, UK is 33 (3%), Israel is... 27 (3.7% positive test rate).

 

So I agree that right now, Israel are doing better.  Their cases are still trending up though, and overall, despite moving faster and harder, it appears that they've done worse for suppression, and had higher prevalence.

 

If this sounds like an argument against vaccines and mitigation, it's not.  Israel has done much (much) better in terms of deaths per capita, and that's what actually matters.

 

But rather than celebrating the win, they're doing even more of "this shit".  There's no light at the end of their tunnel, no Old Normal, just more green passes.

 

My point is that there is no magic bullet against an endemic, mutating coronavirus, and that even vaxpässen will not macht frei.

 

So we can rage about it and play chase-the-cases, or we can put it in perspective as an also-ran in the mortality and hospitalisation stakes rather than losing our collective minds every time we have another cycle of cases leading to tests leading to cases, while ICU and deaths actually continue to fall.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

 

 

 

 

[EDcase]

No matter how you quantify them, trends are clear given the same metrics and the graphic clearly shows the results of taking it seriously vs not.

 

 

Edited December 23, 2021 by EDcase