How will airsoft be affected by the EU referendum

[Reb3l]

I apologise in advance for this but I wondered, with sites like gunfire pl being based in Poland how will airsoft be affected in the UK if we leave ?

[James1989]

Well for starters depending how the markets act if the pound looses value significantly getting stuff from europe will be more expensive. In terms of imports that depends on the deals we do if we leave we could well see taxes and tariffs on certain goods especially anything that is deemed controversial as mps will not be as willing to push for those to be liftes. To be honest we could all well be f*cked doomed to be the North Korea of Europe isolated by our own arrogance that we can just do as we please without comprimise.

[CES_williamson]

Honestly, being a UKIPPER you could say i was biased, but if we negotiated free trade deals with the EU which is the plan, it shouldn't really be affected, we could also get free trade deals with other countries such as japan and china etc who manufacture a lot of the airsoft stuff, which could make it cheaper!

[Sacarathe]

Wow, thread title sounds interesting, briefly, but turns out it's just about money. :/

[James1989]

Well Sacarathe if you would like to lead us down a more political path I'm sure it would be fascinating the debate that arises I just didn't know if this was the place to do it so I stuck to the question in the op about the cost of guns from Poland. I have seen EU debates and they dont always end civilised!

[Sacarathe]

Well Sacarathe if you would like to lead us down a more political path I'm sure it would be fascinating the debate that arises I just didn't know if this was the place to do it so I stuck to the question in the op about the cost of guns from Poland. I have seen EU debates and they dont always end civilised!

 

http://www.airsoft-forums.co.uk/index.php/topic/30013-should-the-uk-leave-the-eu/

 

I can't see any way airsoft could be uniquely affected by a Brexit.

[Giliador]

Honestly, being a UKIPPER you could say i was biased, but if we negotiated free trade deals with the EU which is the plan, it shouldn't really be affected, we could also get free trade deals with other countries such as japan and china etc who manufacture a lot of the airsoft stuff, which could make it cheaper!

If you look at Norway, they are not in EU, yet to be in EU market trade they need to contribute around £400 milion a year, don't expect Britain not to pay. Not to mention that one of the requirements to benefit from EU trade is open border.

[proffrink]

Also worth noting Norway's pension fund currently owns - on average - just over 1% of all the worlds publicly traded shares*. They produce around 18,000 litres of oil per capita and 59% of their exports are crude or crude distillates; in total 1.7 million barrels of crude per year come out of the ground.

 

The UK produces around 780 litres of oil per capita - crude oil and distillates make up around 10% of our exports.

 

We're primarily a service-based economy and one of the most complicated in the world at that; light industry - a surprising amount of cars, high-value engine parts for aerospace; servicing - banking, technology/IT and tourism (surprisingly); raw materials processing - almost 800,000 barrels of crude per year thanks to North Sea oil and BP (but again, an extremely small amount actually exported as a total part of our GDP).

 

Basically Norway is a terrible comparison as they're in a completely different position to the way the UK operates. Their economy is one of the most simple in continental Europe, whilst ours is one of the most complicated in the world (literally the 11th most diverse according to OEC).

 

To answer the question though: No, I don't think airsoft will be hugely affected beyond some extra import tariffs. How these would be negotiated is anyone's guess, but one would assume they again fall under 'any other country' and are given a tax code for the good upon entry then charged accordingly. Remember, VAT is a sales tax and is in practice sort of meant to replace an import charge because - by the very nature of the EU - the second something comes into the EU itself it's already been 'imported' and doesn't need to be again. As such, a 'free trade' deal might be limited in scope and may well not cover a large number of consumer goods (instead being restricted to larger sectors of the economy).

 

One thing I do know though is that importing will once again become a bit more complicated even if it does end up around the same price. We will still be paying our own VAT but we'll also likely be getting import duty on bigger stuff too (not usually a huge amount, but still a pain at times if the package has to sit in customs to be properly taxed).

 

_{*Fun fact: That's close to $900 billion (or $176,000 for every man, woman and child who's a citizen of Norway).}

[Sitting Duck]

99% it will make very little difference for a long while

 

If EU places tax on out exports and we tax out EU imports it would be tit for tat crap

take a BMW from Germany or a left hand drive UK built Nissan Micra for EU market - subject to extra tax or duty overnight - nah

 

The whole tax issue in general is a joke:

You earn £100 - you pay tax on that £100 so you get say £80 in your pocket

then when you go to spend it you pay more tax or vat or duty on the £100 you just paid tax on ffs

 

It would probaly take them 10yrs just to classify if airsoft - 99% of MP's don't wtf airsoft is anyway

ages to pi$$ball about just trying to classify wtf airsoft is

is it a sport - is it sporting goods then well uhm is it luxury items then - hang on isn't nigh on most stuff luxury items then

well it was imported into poland and duty was paid on that as it entered/left poland anyway

ooh ergh uhm well they are alright not them bastids china who undercut our steel industry I guess

uhm ergh - best have a wait n see

 

Nobody bloody knows but doubt if everything will be subject to 20% duty overnight

 

They will see what the other countries do to our exports - which tbh why should it matter really to trading with EU

 

All bollox end of the day - everybody is bull$hitting and twisting stuff but end of day NOBODY KNOWS

 

Jack Dee story:

 

Goes to some poxy Craft Fair full

Has to pay £1 to enter this craft fair

Why £1 to enter - I can walk round all the shops for free

I can walk into Harrods - one of the best shops in the world for nothing

yet I gotta pay £1 to look around and examine the Shell Man's crap covered in shells

 

Just greed - we should be able to trade with ALL of our allies - end of

including America - I mean if people are your allies or friends then you don't always charge them the full going rate

 

Just feel a lot of the trade crap - most of the problems are put their by the various goverment of that country really

You have paid tax already - so now wtf paying more tax/duty to purchase stuff from your allies/friends ???

 

It isn't as simple as this I know - the world of economics n crap

BUT think most of the problems in the world are often made worse or more complicated than they need to be

Why should it change is what really begs the question - not will it

[James1989]

 

http://www.airsoft-forums.co.uk/index.php/topic/30013-should-the-uk-leave-the-eu/

 

I can't see any way airsoft could be uniquely affected by a Brexit.

Wel strike me down with a feather I had no idea it had already been so well debated. Thank you interesting read.

[CES_williamson]

If you look at Norway, they are not in EU, yet to be in EU market trade they need to contribute around £400 milion a year, don't expect Britain not to pay. Not to mention that one of the requirements to benefit from EU trade is open border.

trying not to get into a EU debate, doing that on a daily basis at the moment on the campaign trail XD but i have to bite, being the 5th biggest economy, having a massive economic trading deficit with the EU, they will want to negotiate a free trade agreement with us, if not the eurozone and the eu common market will go even more south. Also being the world leader in "soft power" (diplomacy) im sure we can negotiate a free trade agreement with the eu common market and with the rest of the world

[James1989]

Being a leader in soft power? Have you seen the ass hats you are trusting with that? We cant even negotiate deporting a terrorist!

[proffrink]

_{Of all the threads, we picked this one to get involved in the EU debate. Sorry}

trying not to get into a EU debate, doing that on a daily basis at the moment on the campaign trail XD but i have to bite, being the 5th biggest economy, having a massive economic trading deficit with the EU, they will want to negotiate a free trade agreement with us, if not the eurozone and the eu common market will go even more south. Also being the world leader in "soft power" (diplomacy) im sure we can negotiate a free trade agreement with the eu common market and with the rest of the world

Macro economics is extremely complex, and it's not something I claim to understand but what this does boil down to (as in every case) is who needs who more. Unfortunately as a net importer we rely heavily on raw and processed materials from Germany and eastern Europe in particular for our own light industry. If you honestly think that the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs EU imports then I have some numbers for you. I know they're boring, but they really matter. Too many people are voting from emotion on the 23rd and I think that's chiefly down to numbers not really being easy to digest or being particularly well presented by either camp. If you go straight to the source on a lot of these figures then you'll find they speak for themselves.

I sympathise, because for a lot of people this is the culmination of a lot of different factors, but going purely by the statistics as they stand right now I'd never see the UK leaving as being tenable economically - even if the social benefits are arguably the reason why a lot of people want out. The EU is chiefly a trade partnership that's beginning to shift towards a federation but is - at its core - still resolutely a free trade zone and will be for years to come.

The most key value here is that UK exports make up 3% of Europe's GDP. Not negligible, but not huge - It actually puts us at the 6th largest exporter to other member states. Again, not nothing but nothing like Germany or France. Our biggest trade partner for exports is still the US (11%) - this might seem like good news, but the amount we import from the EU right now is scary: ~50% of our net.

This site does a really good job of breaking down economies into nice infographics: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/

Here's a graph on imports/exports. Again, you can see the deficit - we rely on EU imports a lot more than EU exports. Whilst initially this is good news for the economy should we leave (less reliant on having to export to the EU), it significantly lowers any bargaining position for the UK.


Here's a good article on this that sources itself properly: http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/after-brexit-how-important-would-uk-trade-be-eu

tl;dr: UK relies a lot on EU imports. Tariffs are going to kill us and negotiating a better deal will be nigh-on impossible as we just don't have the numbers to back it up.

If you've not already guessed: I'm right now going for 'staying a member'. The immigration crisis, the petty laws and the slightly erroded sense of British identity are all going to be forgotten topics in 20 years, but what won't be is giving up being a founding member of a potentially semi-federalised body with what is - as of 2014 - the 2nd largest GDP on the planet.

[Sacarathe]

Vote leave people are like church people... Do anything now, and seek absolution later. /spam

[BrightCandle]

As far as it stands Europe is once again on the war path against airsoft guns whereas our existing government while defining power limits is defending the hobby still. Its not a particular good reason to vote to leave because I am fairly confident that Europe's attempt to ban our hobby wont succeed but they could.

[CES_williamson]

_{Of all the threads, we picked this one to get involved in the EU debate. Sorry}

 

Macro economics is extremely complex, and it's not something I claim to understand but what this does boil down to (as in every case) is who needs who more. Unfortunately as a net importer we rely heavily on raw and processed materials from Germany and eastern Europe in particular for our own light industry. If you honestly think that the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs EU imports then I have some numbers for you. I know they're boring, but they really matter. Too many people are voting from emotion on the 23rd and I think that's chiefly down to numbers not really being easy to digest or being particularly well presented by either camp. If you go straight to the source on a lot of these figures then you'll find they speak for themselves.

 

I sympathise, because for a lot of people this is the culmination of a lot of different factors, but going purely by the statistics as they stand right now I'd never see the UK leaving as being tenable economically - even if the social benefits are arguably the reason why a lot of people want out. The EU is chiefly a trade partnership that's beginning to shift towards a federation but is - at its core - still resolutely a free trade zone and will be for years to come.

 

The most key value here is that UK exports make up 3% of Europe's GDP. Not negligible, but not huge - It actually puts us at the 6th largest exporter to other member states. Again, not nothing but nothing like Germany or France. Our biggest trade partner for exports is still the US (11%) - this might seem like good news, but the amount we import from the EU right now is scary: ~50% of our net.

 

This site does a really good job of breaking down economies into nice infographics: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/gbr/

 

Here's a graph on imports/exports. Again, you can see the deficit - we rely on EU imports a lot more than EU exports. Whilst initially this is good news for the economy should we leave (less reliant on having to export to the EU), it significantly lowers any bargaining position for the UK.

 

-snip-

 

Here's a good article on this that sources itself properly: http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/after-brexit-how-important-would-uk-trade-be-eu

 

tl;dr: UK relies a lot on EU imports. Tariffs are going to kill us and negotiating a better deal will be nigh-on impossible as we just don't have the numbers to back it up.

 

If you've not already guessed: I'm right now going for 'staying a member'. The immigration crisis, the petty laws and the slightly erroded sense of British identity are all going to be forgotten topics in 20 years, but what won't be is giving up being a founding member of a potentially semi-federalised body with what is - as of 2014 - the 2nd largest GDP on the planet.

Well, that is a good argument, and im not going to keep debating on here, but i respect your post for thinking it through, we just simply dont agree on everything, but thats how it is with the EU referendum just a result of the whole argument!

[Jedi_Master]

Now just imagine if the UK was not already a member of the EU, and we were holding a referendum on whether to become part of federal Europe or remain independent. I wonder how many would vote to join the EU?

 

To answer the OP; maybe Brexit would be good for the UK airsoft industry because people would then buy from our retailers and support our economy?

[proffrink]

A large number of economical and social decisions made in policy since the 1970s have had direct influences from Brussels - this is the cornerstone of debates from both sides. One could argue we wouldn't be as well off or that we would be better off right now, but you can't simultaneously argue that the UK is in such a good position right now that joining the EU wouldn't make sense whilst also saying the EU has no bearing on the way the UK operates. That's a cake and eat it scenario right there because we have no alternate reality that we can compare ourselves too.

 

The reality we live with right now - for better or worse - is that we have an incredibly complex, largely service-based economy who's little industry that's left relies extremely heavily on imports from the EU. This isn't a 'wind-back-the-clock rose-tinted spectacles scenario'.

 

Also, hell yes to a federal Europe for another thing. Do you have any idea how powerful a federalised Europe would be? We'd be at the big-boys table for good again.

 

I'm not sure how much water the whole 'support British retailers' holds either, when we all know how little range and how highly priced a lot of the stuff is. It's not like people are going to stop ordering from Hong Kong and if anything we're going to see a short period of inflation as GBP goes through the floor for the next couple of years until things are figured out. That's going to give retailers a far harder time than consumers could ever make up for.

[Sitting Duck]

End of the day the only you will really know for sure if we are better off or worse off

is to vote out and see which is why I'm voting leave.....

 

I could go on but deep down that is simply it - suck it n see to find out for sure once n for all

none of this expert's maybe/possible/likely/could be crap

you remain you will never know - you will wonder maybe but never ever be able to know for sure

experts - often with an interest may say this or that but if you remain then they will "appear" to be correct

That is really the only thing they do really know - stay in and there is no chance they could be wrong - which has happened quite a bit

And a "number" of the figures are open to question or out of date or incomplete or distorted - even the ones on government websites

figures that were being used up to just a few weeks ago are now being called into question and admitted some of these figures are now incorrect

 

Just read up a bit on your own - decide for yourself but don't believe most of the stuff both sides are chucking around

They are all liars and out for themselves

[proffrink]

I agree that it's a decision everyone needs to make for themselves, but that's a non-point: So is every vote.

 

The numbers I've quoted are from third parties and I've been careful to stay away from too much speculation - they're only a year behind where we are now; this is standard practice as they take time to propogate. Please interpret the figures for yourself by all means, but I really wouldn't dismiss their validity every time. These are from years-old institutions with little to no polical ties - the majority are not British or even European and are well respected.

 

Economic uncertanty will kill the pound at least in the short term. Whether or not we're correct long-term is something I'd be happy to debate the numbers with you on (indeed have, I hope, done a fairly good job of presenting them to you), but even if we had a plan B (and make no mistake, we do not right now).

 

I'd really like to see the numbers supporting leaving, but no impartial body has properly looked into that - It's a large, speculative undertaking though so it is understandable. Again though, uncertainty is as bad as negative certainty.

[Sitting Duck]

Think end of the day both sides have approached all of this badly - very badly.....

They have taken figures - put their own spin on it all and told the public if you vote this way or that way - ya ar$e falls off

 

What they should of been doing is breaking it all down to straight bare bone facts n figures that dumb ar$e Joe Public can grasp

Problem being there is now too much mud slinging going around to just ease up on the bull$hit a bit

So both sides carry on churning out more bollox and poor Joe Public reaches a decision that he don't know who or what to believe

 

Truth of the matter is - nobody really knows for absolute sure if we will be better off in or out

So instead of somebody actually concentrating on what stuff they do know and putting it into a format for all to understand

They instead bull$hit it to make themselves appear like they know what they are talking about and hope the undecided swallow it

 

Aside from all the stories on both sides the thing that really scares me is how many people are completely clueless still how they vote

The scales on something so important are very likely to be tipped by a load of people that are not sure or not got a f*cking clue

THAT to me is the scariest thing about all of this EU malarky - very scarey indeed that we are at the mercy of uhm ergh Joe Public

[Mos]

Literally this ^

 

I agree with duck,

 

To be fair, I'm only a young teenager, so I'm not great with it all.

 

But, I'm sure with many other adults people have not been told in lamens terms what is what. And what will happen if you vote this etc.

 

A lot of people have no clue - including me - what is the actual facts, and what will happen.

 

"But young man mos, you shouldn't bother you're only a kid" - yes, but I imagine the turn out of this vote will shape my future, therefore it matters.

[proffrink]

Short-term, every economic think tank is saying that staying in is more viable - if not because of the 'net importer' thing, then because of the uncertainty just crippling the pound. Long term there's further uncertainty - not necessarily bleak if something can be negotiated or we work more closely with alternative suppliers, but a lot of 'ifs'. Again, 'ifs' are enough to kill investment. That's what we're dealing with here.

 

I sympathise with people who think there's too much misinformation going about though, because there is. Lots of numbers and graphs don't get headlines a lot and I think the social issues involved in leaving have been overplayed a great deal with the real debate over economics being missed.

 

We may miss the days of Brussels not meddling in our laws, but the economic impact of the EU has been profound on Europe as a whole (hate to say it once more but we have the 2nd largest GDP of anywhere on the planet as a group). Social issues come and go decade to decade, but underlying macro economics take a very, very long time to cultivate. We might be about to throw the baby out with the bathwater, and it will hurt at least in the short term a great deal.

 

This information is out there - being ignorant of the facts to base ones interpretations on these days isn't an excuse with the internet being what it is. We see this every day with people asking how barrels and batteries work. Millions of man-hours are put into making ways to compile data on places like OEC to make this information semi-easily digestible. We all know a single person can't be trusted, but raw numbers can. One can so easily circumvent the politics of newspapers, blogs and politicians that there's just no reasonable explanation for not doing so.

 

Also Mos, you couldn't figure out how a Biro worked so I'm not surprised that you need to work on your Google skills quite a bit

[Jambo88]

Can we not have a politics section on the forum for this kind of thread?

[Sacarathe]

Can we not have a politics section on the forum for this kind of thread?

 

Are you serious?

 

Also, we already do not have a politics section on the forum