Possible answer to the Afghan army question .

[Druid799]

So would appear the answer to why the Afghan army folded so stupendously is all the best ones joined the Taliban once they’d been trained (or simply joined up to GET trained ?) on the simplest of levels look at the trigger discipline on some of these fighters (safety on , trigger finger laying along the receiver) marks them way above your average run of the mill  ‘raghead’ insurgent ?

View attachment 77729

 

[Monkman]

Haha...I noticed the very same thing yesterday.  Not your average run of the mill goat herding talib.  Some trained dudes right there.

 

[EvilMonkee]

You are over thinking it.  Whilst its a distinct possibility and there probably are ex ANA in the Taliban, you have to remember this is a group that has been in existence since Soviets invaded, they have had plenty of time to get fighters trained in basic weapon safety. A dead Tally is no use to Allah afterall...

We also need to consider that much like the Vietcong in Vietnam, that at least some of the people view them as the liberators from western interference and oppression.  The fact that we see them as evil (which they obviously are) doesn't chime with how your average ill educated Afghan in Kandahar views them.  The issue and the war is wider than the narrative presented by the western media and needs to be examined as a whole.  Afghan has always been the death of empire from Alexander the Great, right through to the British in the 1880s to the Soviets and now the Allies.  You need to think of Afghan not as a country but as a collection of tribes.  They are not coherent.  My prediction is splintering of the Taliban and a descent to civil war again much like the 1990s.  Russia and China will also start to try to fill the power vacuum left by the west and will be the Talibans only source of reliable income and development.

 

[Speedbird_666]

One theory I heard (seriously) is that the ANA has been extensively trained in American/British tactics and equipment - notably heavy use of air cover and helicopters, especially for insertions and casualty evacuation.

When Biden ordered the pull-out, he pulled all US contractor support for the aircraft with immediate effect, grounding many of them almost instantly. It was realised pretty quickly by the ANA that they were not capable of running a ground campaign without air support as per the US TTPs.

It could be BS, but it sounds like a plausible factor that contributed to the ANA thinking 'fuck that', dropping their gear and running for the hills.

 

[EvilMonkee]

One theory I heard (seriously) is that the ANA has been extensively trained in American/British tactics and equipment - notably heavy use of air cover and helicopters, especially for insertions and casualty evacuation.

When Biden ordered the pull-out, he pulled all US contractor support for the aircraft with immediate effect, grounding many of them almost instantly. It was realised pretty quickly by the ANA that they were not capable of running a ground campaign without air support as per the US TTPs.

It could be BS, but it sounds like a plausible factor that contributed to the ANA thinking 'fuck that', dropping their gear and running for the hills.

Yep bang on.  Same thing happened in Iraq.  All this expensive kit, ISIS turn up with a technical and an AK and they run for the hills.  There are a LOT of parallels with what happened in Iraq with ISIS actually.

If you look at the history of Counter Insurgency Warfare since the Second World War, the only ones we can consider to have won out of all of them is Malaya but that was different as it was two ethnic groups striving for independence from each other not us (Malays v Indonesia) Every other single COIN war we have fought we lost.  Vietnam, the various proxy wars in Angola and Congo, Rhodesia, Northern Ireland (yes a loss as the IRA were not defeated and have not gone away), Afghanistan and Iraq.  We cannot do COIN warfare as we lack the political will to see it through to the end as we are stopped by our western values from doing what is necessary.  

 

[mightyjebus]

the Afghan army didn't really fold. You can't look at them as a regular western style army. They are basically a bunch of guys controlled by various warloards. These warlords have been around for a long time for a simple reason. they pick the side that is going to win and swap sides to whatever one that is. Right now that's the taliban but if Massoud's son manages to gather support up North then it might be a different story in 12 months time. Remember that the Afghan people have had a bit of more stable life within the bigger cities for the last 20 years so if the taliban start to behave like they did 20 years ago then the Afghans will be routing for Massoud's son.

If the same warlords start to see a shift in power then they will barter a position in the new northern alliances government and switch sides again.

I visited about 50 locations in Afghan over 6 years and the love for the deceased massoud was a bit like the british love for the Queen. It would be a very differnet country today if he hadn't been assassianted the day before the 9/11 attacks.

As for the Afghan army well I've seen them hit targets at 1200m with a dragonov which is supposed to only be good out to 700, at -22C they are running about in sandels with a pair of socks on and generally not give 2 F's when someone is shooting at them. True, some of them are idiots but then show me an Army that doesn't have its share of idiots.

Afghan is always going to be a crazy place. For the last 20 years the Russian's, Chinese and Pakistani's have had a large Western force within striking range of their borders and probably did as much as possible to undermine the Western army. Now that this is gone then the Russians will be worried about the Southern Russian states being influenced by the Taliban, the Pakistani's will be terrified that the Pashtun (the taliban are mostly Pashtun) population that is spread from Afghanistan to Pakistan and doesn't recognise the official border will cause problems in the North of the country and lastly the Chinese will be eyeing up Afghan for 2 reasons. 1 being it's full of resources that only the Chinese have the man-power to shift from Afghan to China and 2nd they will be a bit twitchy because they haven't got the best press when it comes to dealing with muslims.

If Afghan is at peace in 5 years time I'm eat my kevlar hat.

on a more personnal note, it's stange seeing the runway all over the TV as I lived in a metal ISO container for quite a long time on the edge of that runway. Right now 2 of my mates are sitting there and still in 2 minds about jumping on the next available Herc. The only reason I'm not calling them idiots is because I'm wondering how many Peq 15s, PVS 14's and ACOG's they can jam in a bag for me before getting on the next flight

 

[Tactical Pith Helmet]

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/publication/120322_Zhao_ChinaAfghan_web.pdf

Decent read on China and Afghanistan.

Yep bang on.  Same thing happened in Iraq.  All this expensive kit, ISIS turn up with a technical and an AK and they run for the hills.  There are a LOT of parallels with what happened in Iraq with ISIS actually.

If you look at the history of Counter Insurgency Warfare since the Second World War, the only ones we can consider to have won out of all of them is Malaya but that was different as it was two ethnic groups striving for independence from each other not us (Malays v Indonesia) Every other single COIN war we have fought we lost.  Vietnam, the various proxy wars in Angola and Congo, Rhodesia, Northern Ireland (yes a loss as the IRA were not defeated and have not gone away), Afghanistan and Iraq.  We cannot do COIN warfare as we lack the political will to see it through to the end as we are stopped by our western values from doing what is necessary.  

Kenya?  The Mau Mau were defeated by a brutal campaign that saw up to 300,000+ Kikuyu in concentration camps being brutally and systematically tortured.  

Elkin's Britain's Gulag and Histories of the Hanged by Anderson are essential works on the subject if you are interested.  

 

[Cannonfodder]

I can't go on personal experience, but the majority of things I've read or seen say the ANA were utterly useless when ISAF troops were in country so I can only imagine what they're like on their own 

 

[Rogerborg]

It was realised pretty quickly by the ANA that they were not capable of running a ground campaign without air support as per the US TTPs

Heck, I'm hearing that half of them didn't even have ammunition, and that swiping gear in lieu of pay was seen as normal.  And given their courageous ex-president was Tweeting "Never give up, never surrender!" while his private jet was taking off, why on earth would the poor bastards on the ground choose to stand there and shout "Bang!" ?

Then factor in that loyalties run: family -> tribe ->  sect -> islam in about that order, with "nation" not appearing in the list at all.

 

[Johnyboy1976]

Should never have been there in the 1st place - all those lives lost and for what ?

Typical response from the US and lapdog UK to get involved in countries we have no right to be in.
Look at Iraq and Libya - yes both Gaddafi and Hussein were not nice people but they kept the countries in check and the regions were stable - we go in remove them and its a fucking shit show.

The ANA in my experience were mostly useless - not really interested in a scrap when shit kicked off and spent most of the time getting high or bumming each other. 

Not saying they are all useless shit bags but majority were .

All the shit is going Boris’s way but we could not be there without the US as we simply don’t have the manpower or logistics to hold back the Taliban and even though I don’t agree with the way its played out there comes a time when enough is enough and you leave - but you put a proper plan in place.

A massive embarrassment but as stated imo somewhere we should never have been.

 

[Speedbird_666]

The Taliban have released a promo for their 'Badri 313' Special Forces Squadron. Interesting use of a FAST mag pouch...

View attachment 77741

I can't help but feel that our involvement in the Middle East has been a colossal waste of time, money, and most importantly, British lives.

Whilst the UK dodged the Vietnam bullet, we jumps squarely into Iraq and Afghanistan behind the Americans, and for what? The world is no safer now than 9/11/2001. It could be argued that the opposite is true.

I just hope that foreign policy moving forward avoids these kind of 'occupational' wars and trying to instill westerns values into societies that, quite frankly, don't want it.

 

[Johnyboy1976]

In both Iraq and Afghanistan we were not wanted - tolerated but why should we expect anything less. 

We were an invading foreign force - the Americans never did the “ hearts and minds “ and for every step forward there would be a massive step back soon after. You could never trust the ANA or the police as you were unable to vet them and as turned out so many times they would end up shooting British / American troops.

they openly talked shit about us not realising that some like me were trained interpreter’s.

like my time in Northern Ireland you just felt that you couldnt trust anyone as you didnt know who the bad guys were 

 

[EvilMonkee]

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/publication/120322_Zhao_ChinaAfghan_web.pdf

Decent read on China and Afghanistan.

Kenya?  The Mau Mau were defeated by a brutal campaign that saw up to 300,000+ Kikuyu in concentration camps being brutally and systematically tortured.  

Elkin's Britain's Gulag and Histories of the Hanged by Anderson are essential works on the subject if you are interested.  

Still a loss as Kenya is independent.

 

[Druid799]

Guys was posted as a light hearted comment on the trigger discipline of a couple Taliban thugs NOT a social comment on the legitimacy of the ‘war on terror’ lighten up ! ?‍

 

[EvilMonkee]

And? Cmon you know the forum by now!  If we can derail a topic we will.  

 

[Cannonfodder]

View attachment 77729

Better trigger discipline than most airsofters