Has anyone noticed Covid spikes after gatherings

[ImTriggerHappy]

Not strictly true. The US Military has reportedly developed a jab that works against all currently known variants and supposedly all future variants.

Time will tell of course, but humans are capable of incredible feats especially when there's a strong enough incentive at play.

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[hitmanNo2]

If there's anyone we can trust, it's the US military...

 

[ImTriggerHappy]

Do I think that anyone still stubborn enough to be unvaccinated at this point is engaging in self- and societal harm?  Yup.

Do I think that calling them "plague rats" and engaging in a Two Minute Hate is likely to be constructive or persuasive?

Nope.  I'd rather that we celebrate the wins rather than turning on each other, no matter how cathartic it feels.

I disagree as two minutes with a blunt instrument and a quick vaccine jab into the unconscious tin foil hat wearing moron seems like it would be quite cathartic to me.

 

[Rogerborg]

As far as Israel vs the UK, it should be quite clear who is on the right path

It would be clearer scaled by population, and by tests performed.

The reason that I mention Gibraltar and - excuse me, it was Cyprus I was thinking of, rather than Malta - is that they've done even more testing per capita than the UK and have - can you guess? - found more cases per capita.

Israel has done less, and found less. But wait, what's the positive test rate?  Or viewed the other way, how many tests has each nation done in order to find a case?

In Cyprus it's 64 (1.56% positive rate), Gibraltar is 55 (1.8%), Cyprus is 64, UK is 33 (3%), Israel is... 27 (3.7% positive test rate).

So I agree that right now, Israel are doing better.  Their cases are still trending up though, and overall, despite moving faster and harder, it appears that they've done worse for suppression, and had higher prevalence.

If this sounds like an argument against vaccines and mitigation, it's not.  Israel has done much (much) better in terms of deaths per capita, and that's what actually matters.

But rather than celebrating the win, they're doing even more of "this shit".  There's no light at the end of their tunnel, no Old Normal, just more green passes.

My point is that there is no magic bullet against an endemic, mutating coronavirus, and that even vaxpässen will not macht frei.

So we can rage about it and play chase-the-cases, or we can put it in perspective as an also-ran in the mortality and hospitalisation stakes rather than losing our collective minds every time we have another cycle of cases leading to tests leading to cases, while ICU and deaths actually continue to fall.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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[EDcase]

No matter how you quantify them, trends are clear given the same metrics and the graphic clearly shows the results of taking it seriously vs not.

 

[Rogerborg]

No matter how you quantify them, trends are clear given the same metrics

It matters how you contextualise them, because you only find the cases that you test for.  It's apples to apples, but it depends how deeply you rummage around in the sack to count them.

We have ramped testing through the roof - and I do mean through, as the ONS daily figures show us doing more tests than we have capacity, which is... rather remarkable.

Our case rate has risen even more sharply, indicating a higher positive test rate. That's bad.

But the rise in admissions seems to have plateaued, and is lower than in September and November.  That's good.

Because of shorter stays, the rise in admissions isn't leading to a rise in those taking up beds. That's better.

And mechanical ventilation (see above) and deaths are falling.  That's great.

I don't see much in these figures to justify violent dehumanising rhetoric.  Describing our fellow citizens as diseased rodents is part of a trend too, and I don't much like where that line ends up.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

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[hitmanNo2]

I don't see much in these figures to justify violent dehumanising rhetoric.  Describing our fellow citizens as diseased rodents is part of a trend too, and I don't much like where that line ends up.

Yeah.  Regardless of where you stand on vaccinations, it's rather terrifying this is all that it's taken to divide populations and turn people against each other.  Rather disgusting really.

Sure, you can say it's dumb or selfish or whatever for eligible people to turn down vaccinations that statistically are doing a lot of good but some of the vitriol that is coming out from certain people is borderline sociopathic.

 

[Cannonfodder]

When the anti maskers/vaxxers compare their choices to the murder of 6 million people I'll give them the respect they deserve View attachment 82968

 

[Rogerborg]

When the anti maskers/vaxxers compare their choices to the murder of 6 million people I'll give them the respect they deserve 

Is it fair to collectivise the views of all mask-sceptical and vaccine-hesitant people as being reflected by a loony-tunes lizard-people Q site?

 

[MAX DICKER]

Personally, I don't believe the dangers of covid have ever been enough to justify all the draconian measures and curbs on liberty that we have seen, and we have been comparatively lucky in Britain. Frankly, what's more frightening to me is how quickly our freedoms can be taken away by our elected public servants.

I think people who are more afraid of covid than the government are deluded.

 

[SBoardley]

Personally, I don't believe the dangers of covid have ever been enough to justify all the draconian measures and curbs on liberty that we have seen, and we have been comparatively lucky in Britain. 

So you don’t believe it…..but we’ve been lucky? Maybe that’s because we’ve had draconian lockdown measures, used masks AND had one of the most successful vaccination programs in the world….oh and don’t forget the brave NHS workers who worked tirelessly, even more so for the last 2years, and died on the frontline try to save our old and infirm?

shut up you nobber. (Apologies)

 

[MAX DICKER]

So you don’t believe it…..but we’ve been lucky? Maybe that’s because we’ve had draconian lockdown measures, used masks AND had one of the most successful vaccination programs in the world….oh and don’t forget the brave NHS workers who worked tirelessly, even more so for the last 2years, and died on the frontline try to save our old and infirm?

shut up you nobber. 

To clarify, I meant we've been lucky compared to other countries that have suffered worse government stamp downs on freedoms.

Now don't get me wrong, I agree that mortality rate from covid can be brought down with extreme measures. For example; a full shut down of the country with martial law enforced lockdown. Mandatory vaccinations for everyone etc....

Is this a world you'd like to live in? Or maybe you're comfortable with the Mandatory vaccinations but not the martial law?

For me, personally, I believe everyone should be able to choose their own response. If you want a vaccine, go for it. If you want to go out in public wearing ppe, that's fine. If you want to lock yourself in your home for the rest of your life for fear of catching the sniffles, knock yourself out.

Freedom isn't free. And the only things that will survive the heat death of the universe are "temporary government powers".

 

[SBoardley]

To clarify, I meant we've been lucky compared to other countries that have suffered worse government stamp downs on freedoms.

Now don't get me wrong, I agree that mortality rate from covid can be brought down with extreme measures. For example; a full shut down of the country with martial law enforced lockdown. Mandatory vaccinations for everyone etc....

Is this a world you'd like to live in? Or maybe you're comfortable with the Mandatory vaccinations but not the martial law?

For me, personally, I believe everyone should be able to choose their own response. If you want a vaccine, go for it. If you want to go out in public wearing ppe, that's fine. If you want to lock yourself in your home for the rest of your life for fear of catching the sniffles, knock yourself out.

Freedom isn't free. And the only things that will survive the heat death of the universe are "temporary government powers".

Last time I looked, vaccinating isn’t mandatory; maybe that’s why this thing isn’t going away. 
on a personal note, I’m a stonemason, most of my work is outside. I don’t get the sniffles, can’t remember the last time I had the flu either. I’ve had my vaccinations because if I was to catch this and pass it on to my elderly relatives, I would never forgive myself.  Remember, these vaccinations aren’t just to protect you; they are to protect Everyone. 

 

[Rogerborg]

Last time I looked, vaccinating isn’t mandatory; maybe that’s why this thing isn’t going away. 

It's not going away even with complete vaccination.  If it were, it wouldn't exist in Israel or Gibraltar.

And given the HSA report today that protection from the mRNA boosters wanes after just 10 weeks, I'm becoming less convinced that "vaccine" is the correct term.  Temporary prophylactic might be closer.

For the avoidance of doubt, I am not saying that the current mRNA jabs aren't working. I'm saying that they work as well as they work, and no better.  They're not a panacea, and it seems clear that they need to be updated to target more recent variants.

Given that omicron is turning out to be milder (as we'd expect), it's not unreasonable to ask: how many more doses, administered how frequently, and for how long?  In the context that we're never going to have zero SARS-COV-2. It's never going away.

I’ve had my vaccinations because if I was to catch this and pass it on to my elderly relatives, I would never forgive myself.  Remember, these vaccinations aren’t just to protect you; they are to protect Everyone. 

They do provide some protection against infection and transmission, but much less than we'd hoped.  And they've never claimed otherwise: all the trials only looked at protection from serious illness or death for the subject, not transmission (and I can't think how they could have done so).

On masks and preventing transmission, the only large scale community study done is the Bangladesh one.

The headline: Masks work.

The details: unlimited amount of free, disposable, surgical-grade masks, in conjunction with a campaign to wear them and instructions on how to use them properly, reduced community infection by an amount just barely on the cusp of statistical significance (96 fewer cases out of a sample size of 106,201, p = 0.043).  Cloth masks, even with the same campaign and instructions, did not (11 fewer cases out of 54,122).

https://www.poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publications/Mask_RCT____Symptomatic_Seropositivity_083121.pdf

Cato Institute also says no on cloth masks.

https://www.cato.org/working-paper/evidence-community-cloth-face-masking-limit-spread-sars-cov-2-critical-review

Am I against masks?  Not as such.  It seems common-sensical that they would serve a "nudge" purpose to remind us that there is still a hazardous virus going around - although the Bangladesh evidence doesn't even support that.

What I'm against is people getting nudged to the point of fury at the absence of them, given the thinnest of evidence that even the best types actually have any benefit in the community.

 

[RostokMcSpoons]

For me, personally, I believe everyone should be able to choose their own response. If you want a vaccine, go for it. If you want to go out in public wearing ppe, that's fine. If you want to lock yourself in your home for the rest of your life for fear of catching the sniffles, knock yourself out.

Yeah, but it's not 'the sniffles' is it ?
At worst, it kills people. 

Imagine if Al-Qaida was killing 150 people per day (last figure I've seen for daily COVID deaths in the UK) and people sat around saying "I don't want anything done to stop it", perhaps even more pertinently "I won't do anything to stop, even though I could help".    How much respect would you have for those people?

Maybe you've not lost anyone close to you so let's make it more relatable.  

I've got friends I play football with who caught it before their jabs, and they could still hear the scar tissue in their lungs crackle months afterwards.

I had it, and even with the harshest edges of it knocked off by my two jabs, it was a pretty crappy week.  That's not the worst of it for me though.
I've lost a big percentage of my senses of taste and smell.  Maybe permanently.   Same for my wife and daughter.

Losing your ability to fully enjoy steaks, curries, beer, wine and all the other good things that usually make life enjoyable - that's really shit.   I wouldn't wish it on anyone.

When a normally delicious curry becomes an exercise in swallowing a load of pencil erasers in a tasteless liquid, and you wash it down with a beer that might as well be water, you will not be a happy bunny, guaranteed.

This is just an example as the senses thing is obviously towards at the 'best case' /  'inconvenient' end of the spectrum of outcomes. 

If you're happy for others to suffer because of 'personal freedoms', then... words fail me. 

The details: unlimited amount of free, disposable, surgical-grade masks, in conjunction with a campaign to wear them and instructions on how to use them properly, reduced community infection by an amount just barely on the cusp of statistical significance (96 fewer cases out of a sample size of 106,201, p = 0.043).  Cloth masks, even with the same campaign and instructions, did not (11 fewer cases out of 54,122).

https://www.poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publications/Mask_RCT____Symptomatic_Seropositivity_083121.pdf

Rebuttal to your one study, a meta-study published in the British Medical Journal:
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj-2021-068302

"Results from more than 30 studies from around the world were analysed in detail, showing a statistically significant 53% reduction in the incidence of Covid with mask wearing"

I absolutely don't want to get into an argument over this, I don't suppose any of us will change our mindsets (for better, or for worse).

Also with the Omicron variant the whole battlefield is shifting beneath our feet, the scientists are unsure of the longer-term outcomes, maybe we'll all end up catching an essentially harmless COVID that grants herd-immunity in the future.   That's probably ridiculously wishful-thinking, but there's certainly a possibility the way we approach the disease will change.  It may just be so infectious that we can't dodge it, masks or not.   

 

[Rogerborg]

If you're happy for others to suffer because of 'personal freedoms', then... words fail me. 

With respect, I have to note that two doses didn't protect you from being sick and symptomatic, so demonstrably can't prevent infection and transmission.

Do I think people should be vaccinated at this point?  Yes, I do.  I even agree with Tony Blair (on this point only) that it's idiotic not to be.

But do I blame the unvaccinated for the ongoing spread?  No, not really, they're mostly harming themselves at this point.

Given the dwindling numbers of unvaccinated versus the rising numbers of cases, it becomes harder to argue that this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated, let alone because of them.

Stupid people, yes, not plague rats. At the risk of broken drumming, who are the Gibraltarians blaming for cancelling Christmas?

It's perfectly understandable to want to blame a human agency for harming you, even when the damage is being done by something with no ill intent that's barely even a lifeform.  And pre-coofs, I was always the guy in the office shouting at plague rats stupid people bringing their coughs and sniffles in with them.  I haven't changed that opinion one iota - symptomatic people need to learn to bloody well isolate themselves, regardless of what they have or think they have.

However, I prefer to reserve my real ire for the people who ordered, funded, and carried out the gain of function research in Wuhan.

 

[Tackle]

To everyone who cites civil liberties & freedoms, & the alleged attempts by government to remove those said freedoms (for the greater good of the many), what's your opinion on conscription, in particular in wartime ?

For everyone screaming about their freedoms, remember without government taking decisive action in 1939, essentially breaking families up, many never to be reunited again, was necessary to ensure even the most basic rights & freedoms. 

Kinda puts the mild restrictions we face today in to perspective, those that disagree should all get together & give each other a big unmasked hug ?

 

[RostokMcSpoons]

Ah, sorry Roger if I didn't make myself clear, it's being anti-mask as well as anti-vax that I have an issue with.
I appreciate your point regarding the vaccines is fair and valid especially given the new strain breaking through the immunity. 

For the previous strains we knew it was never 100% but still demonstrably doing a good job in reducing infections.  

If everyone in the UK had got their jabs done, it wouldn't have stopped Omicron from appearing - that's a failure of the SA govt and the international community.

 

[Rogerborg]

Ah, sorry Roger if I didn't make myself clear, it's being anti-mask as well as anti-vax that I have an issue with.

I'm the other way around.  Even with waning efficacy of the current vaccines versus omicron and beyond, it seems clear that they're continuing to offer protection.  Although the HSA (and BioNTech) are implying that we're looking at re-doses every 90 days or so, which comes with a moral hazard[*].

Masks, I haven't found any compelling evidence for community efficacy (as opposed to careful use in clinical settings).  I mean, "it's just common sense", but my common observation is that many-to-most are being worn performatively rather than diligently.

For context, I bought and used a box of FFP3 respirators in early March 2020, "responsibly stockpiling" before the panic buying started.  I have no problems with measures that work, my issue (as with chrono!) is performing ritual safety theatre without any real benefit.

That's an argument in favour of better mask wearing, but it's probably a futile one, given that the same talking heads exhorting us to wear them generally don't even bother when they think they're off camera.

If everyone in the UK had got their jabs done, it wouldn't have stopped Omicron from appearing - that's a failure of the SA govt and the international community.

Coronaviruses mutate rapidly, that's why they're so successful and tenacious.  We've never had a vaccine - or persistent herd immunity - for the common cold, as the several coronaviruses that cause those symptoms keep tweaking themselves just enough to escape immunity.

SARS-COV-2 is likely to do the same, vaccines or not, and the significant difference between 1 and 2 is asymptotic transmission.  That means variants are likely to spread because they'll already be out of the country before they're recognised as existing, or novel, let alone been sequenced and having a specific test created.

[*]Out of interest, what's your thoughts on the WHO's position that richer countries should be sending doses to poorer countries rather than engaging in universal booster campaigns?  If it was an either/or, would you prefer to get your third or fourth, versus a rural South African community nurse getting her first or second?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/who-head-tedros-adhanom-ghebreyesus-admonishes-countries-with-blanket-booster-programs/vi-AAS4mkw

 

[Cannonfodder]

All the data shows that vaccines work to reduce the risk of infection and transmission of the virus. Does it give 100% protection? No but it significantly reduces the chance of infection and if you do get infected the chances of being hospitalised are far lower. 

All I'm hearing from the anti vaxx crowd is that it's a attack on their freedoms and other such nonsense. Nobody is being descriminated against or rounded up and its worth remembering that your rights end when your actions affect others.